Here are some of my takeaways from this very interesting conference.
Disclaimer - it is possible that all of this information is already well-known to everyone who is fully immersed into higher education politics - I am not always, so this collection of diverse sessions, focusing on affordability, funding, the diverse missions of public institutions of higher education, and their diverse range brought different ideas and discussion partners together in interesting ways (for me).
Nathan Grawe, and Economics professor from Carleton College, started us off by providing us with information about Demographic Destinies; How Population Shifts will Play out in Higher Ed.
His main points were that we are seeing a national migration from the Northeast and West to the SouthEast and South, an increase in immigration, a general decline in fertility, with the exception of the Hispanic demographics. In particular, the economic recession of 2007 led to a sharp decline in the national birthrate, which translates to a dramatic drop in traditional (18-year-old) college enrollment in 2025. As he put it, we are missing 5.7 mio babies.
In addition, just because some groups still have a solid birth rate, these are groups that are so far not targeted by many of our higher education institutions, with the major exception of the community colleges. Another group that is growing are Asian Americans - this tends to be traditionally a group very interested in higher education, but this means that institutions need to think about how to shift their focus from what they may see as their traditional group of students.
And while his discussion very much focused on the traditional 18-22-year-old students, it begs the question how we can reach anyone else who needs to get a better education, especially in a world where an increasing number of jobs require at least a bachelor's degree or specialized skill sets that employers are now interested in providing. Before too long, we will see the large tech companies moving into the education field, cutting out higher education potentially altogether, and they may have better success targeting those folks who were not able to stay in our more traditional settings.
Other discussions focused around the myth of tuition - that it is too high and people cannot afford it. The discussion shifted from everyone can afford college if they can afford a new car to, yes, tuition is not too bad, but the additional costs of housing, food, fees, and other items make this again very difficult. Berkley disclosed that 10% of its students are at some point homeless while enrolled, while up to one third suffer from food insecurity. Everywhere, Black students' attendance rates are still dropping, in spite of all the efforts towards better retention, while St. Cloud State research shows that student belonging and boosting it through simple gestures of inclusion can make all the difference for a student at risk to stay. The bottom line is that tuition is still problematic - it gets raised when the states cut their contributions, and states cut their contributions, when the federal government spends more money on, say, Pell grants - so an increase in Pell grants and support for students almost inevitably leads to higher tuition that outpaces any kind of well-meant support. And at the same time, what the states are spending on higher ed now is more than what they spent in 1993 - because there are more students. At the same time, the average income of a family has been shrinking. Find yourself on this map and see what the average salary is in your area: http://www.energyjustice.net/justice/index.php?gsLayer=income. For Lee County, AL, just around Auburn, different regions range from $25,000 to $72,000 - just a couple of miles apart.
Does it then make sense to talk about tuition-free education or debt-forgiveness? A couple of discussions focused on these options as touted by current presidential candidates, with the answer that this is not a simple discussion. The philosophical point, made by Christopher Newfield, is based on the idea that a university education is for the public good. If I receive a degree, it is not solely for my private business gain, but it is for the larger community - whether this is based in the economics of taxes or in the politics of social justice, either way a degree is more than to benefit the individual. Only when the country understands this, will free education make more sense. While some European countries have been able to do this, they pay for this through higher taxes, they use higher education not as a general way of shifting adults to a new chapter in their lives, and they most certainly do not assume that everyone needs to have a college degree to be successful. In the United States, this appears less and less of an option, and one should counter the argument that not everyone needs a college degree with the question of - so your children are not getting one? Tennessee is of course one of the examples where the offer of free education (Tennessee promise, for the first two years of community college) appears to work - but only because Governor Bill Haslam also spent a lot of time and effort getting businesses to come to Tennessee.
And if institutions cannot keep going by finding new markets (international students, dual enrollment, returning students) and cannot stay competitive with offering shorter degree options that focus on certificates for a limited but valuable set of skills/knowledge, then closing down institutions or consolidating them appears the next logical step. Here, voices were loud and clear that closing of higher education institutions in poor areas (rural, some urban) can mean the death of the community. But this may also be a sentimental cry for the good old times. If your students at the community college do not have jobs to move into with their new degrees, it begs the question what the function of the community college in that community truly is.
Online learning can be seen as an easy solution for some of these issues, but they also compound other problems - online learning can push smaller programs more easily out of business; online learning, though touted as a way to save money, does not equate with lower tuition; online learning, unfortunately, while academically is equal to face-to-face learning, for many folks the personal connection, the social learning is necessary to succeed - and this is very difficult to achieve well, consistently, in the online space.
A couple of speakers reminded us of the role of faculty and that it also needs to be shaken up and reconsidered. I really liked the idea of the University of Georgia's bus tour of the state for new faculty members, exposing them to the diverse regions, people, concepts and issues that define the state, and giving them an opportunity to connect with the people of the state and recognizing for whom they are working. Listening to Freeman Hrabowski and his call for giving all students a better education was inspiring. If you have not encountered him in person, take a moment to listen to him here:
He reminded us that the more prestigious the institution, the more AP classes, the higher the SAT score, the more likely it is the students drop out, no matter the demographics. That is painful! And he reminded us of the importance of asking good questions.
Finally, we were reminded that higher ed needs to do a better job evaluating what it does. The new government scorecard should help with this (with a new FAFSA), and a better focus on outcomes - though it is unclear what the word meant in this discussion.
For a different perspective of the conference, please see https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/confessions-community-college-dean/%E2%80%9Cfuture-higher-ed%E2%80%9D-day-one-bluntness-unto-truth
and https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/confessions-community-college-dean/ideas-search-theory-day-two-future-higher-ed-conference
and https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/confessions-community-college-dean/%E2%80%9Cfuture-higher-ed%E2%80%9D-day-three-vouchers-vouchers-vouchers with a much better discussion of the financial challenges than I can put into words.
Let me finish with a final Baltimore impression: Edgar Allan Poe's touristy grave stone, not to be confused with the original, less glamorous one:
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